Bimodalność i długoterminowe trendy wartości ekstremalnych temperatury powietrza

Abstrakt

Histograms of air temperature with a bimodal shape are commonly observed in many regions of the world. In this study, we investigate the causes of bimodality in the histograms of daily temperature series (minimum, average, and maximum) for selected climatological stations in Slovakia. Our findings suggest that in the Central European region, the bimodal shape of air temperature histograms is mainly due to the latent heat of freezing, as the surface of snow and ice and the air are thermally coupled. The asymmetry in the air temperature histograms is due to the lower mass heat capacity of ice compared to water and air. The energy-intensive latent heat of conversion of ice to water (and vice versa) results in the more frequent occurrence of ground-layer air temperatures around the freezing point, leading to the formation of the observed local maximum. This has far-reaching implications, such as the calculation of the annual mean air temperature at climatological stations. When calculating the average air temperature, negative temperatures should be given less weight than positive temperatures. Temperatures around 0-6°C should be given higher weight. This may also explain why Arctic regions are experiencing more significant warming than equatorial regions. In the second part of this paper, we analyze the long-term trends of selected temperature indices for the climatological station at Hurbanovo (Slovakia) from 1871 to 2020. Our results indicate statistically significant changes in all temperature indices, with indices related to cold temperatures increasing more significantly than those associated with high temperatures. Finally, study examines theoretical probability distributions to estimate T-year temperatures for temperature indices at the Hurbanovo climate station in Slovakia. The analysis includes three time periods (1901–1960, 1961–2020, and 1991–2020) and reveals significant changes in temperature indices at the Hurbanovo station. The 100-year temperature of TN,min was –35.75°C in 1901–1960, –28.69°C in 1961–2020, and –26.52°C in 1991–2020. The 100-year temperature of TX,max was 39.4°C in 1901–1960 and 39.63°C in 1961–2020. TN,min showed the most significant changes, with the 100-year temperature increasing by up to 7.06°C in 1961–2020 and up to 9.23°C in 1991–2020.